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It was the scoop of the century.

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WikiLeaks lifts the curtain
on the secret communications

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between Washington
and the diplomats we have stationed
all over the globe.

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I'm not aware of any release
of information in human history

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comparable to the amount
that was released via WikiLeaks.

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These were cables that showed
a superpower's secret thoughts.

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A quarter of a million
US diplomatic messages,

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apparently stolen
by one of their own soldiers,

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turned into a global sensation
by a whistle-blowing website

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and its controversial founder
Julian Assange.

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I like crushing bastards.

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We've dug deep into the cables
to uncover stories
America did not want you to hear...

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the difference between
what the US says in public
and what it says in private.

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Last time,
we revealed from the cables
how America treats its allies.

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Now, we investigate
how it confronts its nightmares.

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Like how it struggles
with Russian aggression...

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Russia was laying down a marker.

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"We're still the big dog
in the neighbourhood
and you have to work with us."

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China's rising economic power...

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The level of the US debt to China

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is a national security concern.

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Its military might...

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They have a targeted approach
to identify our vulnerabilities.

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And the ultimate threat...
an Iranian bomb.

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I've had three American presidents
saying Iran getting a weapon
is unacceptable.

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From our detailed examination
of the secrets within the cables,

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we ask if America,
in an increasingly defiant world,
faces losing its dominance.

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It's not a superpower
that can click its fingers

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and expect the rest of the world
to come to heel.

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<font color="#3399CC">Subtitles by MemoryOnSmells
http://UKsubtitles.ru</font>

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There has never been a country
as powerful as the United States.

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Tens of thousands of diplomats
around the world

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report to Washington
on the business of the empire.

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They communicate through
secret cables

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that were never meant to be seen
by the world.

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Because of the WikiLeaks release, we
can all read their private thoughts.

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Some of these cables
were light-hearted,

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reporting on scandalous rumours
and the pursuit of America's ideals
in the world.

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Others were darker.

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There are secret reports

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of old enemies
flexing their muscles.

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The founder, Julian Assange, is now
on Interpol's Most Wanted list.

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Russia has dismissed fresh WikiLeaks
disclosures.

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Once again,
some of the leaks are embarrassing,
but some could be dangerous.

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The revelation
of all of these documents

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is extraordinarily embarrassing
for the US.

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This disclosure
is not just an attack

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of America's Foreign Policy
interests,

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it is an attack
on the international community.

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We've spent months analysing all
quarter of a million leaked cables.

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Taken together,

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they offer a striking new analysis
of the state of the superpower.

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They show a nation
struggling to achieve its goals,

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facing defiance around the world,

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and locked into confrontation
with old enemies and with new ones.

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Reading the cables, there is a fear
that has never really gone away...

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Russia.

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The secret documents showing
the rise to power of Vladimir Putin
in control of a more hostile Kremlin

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gives America sleepless nights.

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Russia's aggression is played out
in the former Soviet states
at its border.

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Bizarrely, one of the people
recorded in the secret documents

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pointing this out,
is Prince Andrew.

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One cable describes a lunch
the Prince attended

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in the tiny Central Asian state
of Kyrgyzstan.

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But behind the bluster,
Andrew had a serious message.

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He referred to a new Great Game,

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a struggle with Russia
for control in the region.

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One of Andrew's great concerns,
as reported in the secret cables,

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was Russia's increasing efforts
to gain influence in Central Asia.

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The Prince's warning
that Russia was a growing threat

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is reflected in many cables.

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This cable quotes
the Kazakh ambassador to Washington.

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He says the Russians
want the Americans out.

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We tracked the ambassador down.

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I'm not saying this is you,
but this is what the Americans
were telling themselves you said,

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"Russia is now playing a new
Great Game for all its worth

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"and wants you totally out
of Central Asia."

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Er.. I...

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Of course, this is a quote of me
by someone else.

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I do not take it as a truth.

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He has interpreted maybe me...

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It seems very clear, though.
No. What I was trying to say,

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we have a very close and meaningful
relationship with Russia,

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but I doubt that I said

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that Russia wants to kick you out,
completely out of the region.

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The cables reveal
how diplomats work,

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the often large gap that exists
between public and private.

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You will say, as part of your job,
one thing to me in an interview,

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but behind closed doors,

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you might say something different
to somebody from the US.

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No, er... Well, er...

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In normal life,
what you say at home, er,

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sometimes is a bit different

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from what you say outside the home,
right?

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Finally, we can go beyond

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the public statements
and official platitudes

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and hear what diplomats really say
behind closed doors.

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Particularly on the subject
of Russia.

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This is one of the great stories
of the cables.

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The Cold War may be over,

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but America's confrontation
with Russia has never really ended.

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"To transfer the S300 long-range
air-defence system to Iran."

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First, I'd like to congratulate
President Putin

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for being the only person
that caught a fish today.

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We got one fish, but that was a...
A team effort!

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The merit goes to the captain.
That's very thoughtful of you!

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In 2007, publically,

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the US was trying to show
how close the two countries were,

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Bush and Putin
acting like the best of friends.

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I've come to the conclusion
that when Russia and America speaks
along the same lines,

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it tends to have an effect.

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But as they were cosying up
for the cameras,

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privately, US diplomats
were gathering worrying rumours
about the state of Russia.

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"The elections
were not legitimate."

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"The prosecutor considers Russia
to be a virtual 'Mafia state'."

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And the cables show these views
were held at the highest levels.

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Former Defence Secretary
Robert Gates

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regularly met the most senior
Russian politicians and commanders.

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We can now see his private thoughts.

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"Gates observed that
Russian democracy has disappeared..."

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Do you stand by that? I wouldn't say
that democracy has disappeared,

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but I would say
it's under a real challenge.

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Dissidents and spies,
politicians and journalists,

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the Americans get their information
from anyone who's prepared to talk.

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We've tracked one of the key
informants in Moscow.

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Sergei Kanev
is an investigative reporter

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for one of Russia's
independent newspapers.

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Kanev helps us understand
how the cables are assembled.

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American diplomats
pursue gossip and rumour,

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gathered up by the armful.

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He says he was called
by the US Embassy

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and asked to meet an "official"
called Sonia.

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She clearly took him seriously.

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Kanev's views were wired back
to Washington.

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But Kanev says this was
low-level intelligence gathering.

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The woman he met
appeared almost naive

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and seemed to know little
of Russian life.

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"And he speculated that
the suitcases are full of money."

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The cables show
increasing concerns

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about Putin's attitude to the West.

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And America's sources
don't hold back

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in their descriptions of him.

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The cables show the Americans
particularly worried
about Putin's attitude

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to the countries around Russia.

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Is there a sense that the Russians
are trying to exert more influence

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in countries around their borders?
No question about it.

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Should we be worried about that?
We are worried about it

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and it's why we try to counter it.

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One of the ways they did this

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was to encourage
these border countries

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to join the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation, NATO,

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the military alliance
of Western countries

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formed to counterbalance Russia
during the Cold War.

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The cables report Putin's attitude
to NATO.

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For 50 years, NATO had been
America's first line of defence
against Russia.

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But in recent years, it had expanded

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and former Soviet countries
were now part of the alliance

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and to Russia's fury,

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NATO was now at its border.

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Putin being himself,
you know, a very aggressive guy,

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he viewed this
as a very aggressive act.

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He felt he had to kind of break out
of this encirclement

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that he saw NATO
as having planned for him.

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The Russians started
to behave aggressively
to those wanting to join NATO,

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like the small ex-Soviet state
of Georgia.

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One cable reports Russia, in an
exchange about the supply of gas,

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demonstrating its power.

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By 2008, American advisers
were training Georgian troops,

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and negotiations for their country
to join NATO
were at an advanced stage.

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Hold the safety pin...

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At that moment, Georgia's tensions
with Russia turned to violence.

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The early cables
reflect America's horror.

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"As continued Russian attacks are
inflicting terror on the population."

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At the start of the crisis,

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the US was careful to condemn
the violence on both sides.

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The situation can be resolved
peacefully.

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00:16:05,539 --> 00:16:10,259
We've been in contact with leaders
in both Georgia and Russia,
at all levels of government.

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00:16:10,259 --> 00:16:15,379
We have urged an immediate halt
to the violence
and a stand-down by all troops.

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But the secret cables show
that even though Georgia
made the first strike,

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from the start, US diplomats
were seeing the confrontation
through Georgia's eyes.

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Many felt the idea of Russian tanks
rolling into a neighbouring country

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had been banished
with the end of the Cold War.

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What were the US saying?
They were furious.

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And they, er, believed

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that this was a bad reversion
to Cold War-style politics.

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Many Russians believed
there was more to this
than a mere border dispute.

189
00:17:06,579 --> 00:17:10,298
Sergey Karagonov
was an adviser to the Kremlin.

190
00:17:10,299 --> 00:17:13,018
In political terms,
we were stopping their,

191
00:17:13,019 --> 00:17:18,019
er, the logic of, er,
indefinite NATO expansion.

192
00:17:18,019 --> 00:17:22,699
It was a confrontation with NATO,
er, which we won. That's it.

193
00:17:24,219 --> 00:17:27,259
Russia was laying down a marker
and saying,

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00:17:27,259 --> 00:17:30,259
"We're still the big dog
in the neighbourhood."

195
00:17:32,179 --> 00:17:34,099
There were very, very high tensions.

196
00:17:34,100 --> 00:17:36,818
Famously,
the Russian Foreign Minister

197
00:17:36,819 --> 00:17:40,818
used some expletives to me
in a phone call

198
00:17:40,819 --> 00:17:43,099
at the time of the crisis.

199
00:17:43,099 --> 00:17:45,019
So it was a very charged
atmosphere.

200
00:17:45,020 --> 00:17:50,618
And the spectre was of real...
conflict,

201
00:17:50,619 --> 00:17:52,659
not of a military kind,

202
00:17:52,659 --> 00:17:55,499
but of a diplomatic,
ongoing diplomatic conflict.

203
00:17:57,379 --> 00:18:01,178
Those tensions between the West
and Russia were plain to see.

204
00:18:01,179 --> 00:18:04,018
But the cables allow us
to go inside the room,

205
00:18:04,019 --> 00:18:06,419
to see the extraordinary
personal nature

206
00:18:06,419 --> 00:18:09,419
of the confrontation
between the West and Russia.

207
00:18:11,899 --> 00:18:16,218
The Americans report that when the
French President Nicolas Sarkozy

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00:18:16,219 --> 00:18:19,419
meets the Russians to talk about
a peace plan for Georgia,

209
00:18:19,419 --> 00:18:22,819
he ends up attacking
the Russian Foreign Minister.

210
00:18:28,419 --> 00:18:31,259
"And at times
became openly hostile."

211
00:18:41,219 --> 00:18:46,739
Russia routed Georgia's army, and
America was powerless to stop it.

212
00:18:46,739 --> 00:18:52,059
The cables show how other countries
around Russia reacted to the war.

213
00:19:01,179 --> 00:19:06,539
For the first time,
we can see the dramatic effect.

214
00:19:07,499 --> 00:19:09,539
This cable reflects the fear

215
00:19:09,539 --> 00:19:12,979
felt in the former Soviet state
of Estonia.

216
00:19:23,619 --> 00:19:26,778
Any country that was formerly
part of the Soviet Union,

217
00:19:26,779 --> 00:19:29,218
that was a former republic
of the Soviet Union,

218
00:19:29,219 --> 00:19:33,818
would've looked what happened
to Georgia and thought
"This is a real worry."

219
00:19:33,819 --> 00:19:36,498
They're small countries
next to a very big country,

220
00:19:36,499 --> 00:19:38,819
and that always induces feelings
of fear.

221
00:19:38,819 --> 00:19:42,899
I think there's no question that
the Georgia crisis exacerbated that.

222
00:19:46,459 --> 00:19:50,298
Estonia was already a member
of the NATO alliance.

223
00:19:50,299 --> 00:19:54,099
But in 2008,
after the war in Georgia,

224
00:19:54,099 --> 00:19:58,659
that was no longer enough
to make it feel safe.

225
00:19:59,459 --> 00:20:01,858
What the Baltic states wanted
was a plan.

226
00:20:01,859 --> 00:20:04,018
They'd been in NATO for four years,

227
00:20:04,019 --> 00:20:07,179
but, unbelievably,
there was no strategy in place

228
00:20:07,179 --> 00:20:09,219
to protect Estonia from attack.

229
00:20:10,219 --> 00:20:14,418
Kurt Volker was the US ambassador
to NATO.

230
00:20:14,419 --> 00:20:18,098
I came at this from having worked
on NATO issues for 20 years

231
00:20:18,099 --> 00:20:22,818
and my instinctive reaction was,
what they're asking for is normal.

232
00:20:22,819 --> 00:20:24,418
It's a defensive alliance.

233
00:20:24,419 --> 00:20:28,218
Our obligation, by treaty,
is to defend each other if attacked

234
00:20:28,219 --> 00:20:32,538
and the prudent and responsible
thing to do is therefore make plans.

235
00:20:32,539 --> 00:20:35,539
There was initially a murmur or wave

236
00:20:35,539 --> 00:20:38,019
that said,
"Oh, no, that would be provocative!"

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00:20:39,819 --> 00:20:44,258
And for the first time,
the cables allow us
to see into this secret crisis

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00:20:44,259 --> 00:20:48,018
at the heart
of the Western Alliance.

239
00:20:48,019 --> 00:20:52,858
Throughout 2009, attempts were made
to come up with a plan.

240
00:20:52,859 --> 00:20:54,458
But it's clear from the cables

241
00:20:54,459 --> 00:20:58,418
in private, America's allies
in Europe were nervous.

242
00:20:58,419 --> 00:21:01,219
They didn't want to do
or say anything

243
00:21:01,219 --> 00:21:04,699
that might suggest confrontation
with Russia.

244
00:21:11,219 --> 00:21:16,059
"That the Alliance and Russia
are on course toward a new Cold War."

245
00:21:24,219 --> 00:21:26,898
This is now a serious issue
for the West.

246
00:21:26,899 --> 00:21:31,578
If NATO can't agree on a plan
to protect the nervous Baltic states
from Russia,

247
00:21:31,579 --> 00:21:33,818
then NATO itself is threatened.

248
00:21:33,819 --> 00:21:36,978
So this is a kind of
Cold War-style crisis

249
00:21:36,979 --> 00:21:40,619
happening in the 21st century,
and happening in secret,

250
00:21:40,619 --> 00:21:45,499
the issue being
how the West protects itself
from Russian aggression.

251
00:22:01,379 --> 00:22:04,378
These were very sensitive times.

252
00:22:04,379 --> 00:22:08,459
At the end of 2009, NATO made
a public approach to Russia

253
00:22:08,459 --> 00:22:11,339
for help in Afghanistan.

254
00:22:12,219 --> 00:22:16,219
In private, they were concluding
plans, known as Eagle Guardian,

255
00:22:16,219 --> 00:22:19,819
to protect the Baltic states
from any Russian threat.

256
00:22:21,059 --> 00:22:27,019
The plans made clear
where NATO units were to be deployed
in the event of an attack.

257
00:22:29,419 --> 00:22:32,298
But it was decided
to keep the plan secret,

258
00:22:32,299 --> 00:22:34,299
and not just from the Russians.

259
00:22:34,299 --> 00:22:40,059
We've found a cable that suggests
the secrecy was essential
to the unity of NATO itself.

260
00:23:00,699 --> 00:23:04,258
An American nightmare
was coming true.

261
00:23:04,259 --> 00:23:09,659
Rumours of the Eagle Guardian plan
had already been around
before the cable release,

262
00:23:09,659 --> 00:23:14,819
but through WikiLeaks, the Russians
could now see the detail.

263
00:23:23,899 --> 00:23:27,019
And some in Russia believed
the deal, and the secrecy,

264
00:23:27,019 --> 00:23:29,979
showed how weak NATO had become.

265
00:23:30,939 --> 00:23:34,218
It showed us, er, simply that

266
00:23:34,219 --> 00:23:37,698
the obvious fact that NATO
is not a very unified alliance.

267
00:23:37,699 --> 00:23:41,618
Nobody in Europe wants the return
of the Cold War

268
00:23:41,619 --> 00:23:45,218
like, er, some weird persons
in White House

269
00:23:45,219 --> 00:23:48,058
or, er, in the state department.

270
00:23:48,059 --> 00:23:52,138
I dare to say
to my military commanders

271
00:23:52,139 --> 00:23:54,338
that if we wish, we could attack.

272
00:23:54,339 --> 00:23:56,778
NATO would, er, collapse.

273
00:23:56,779 --> 00:23:58,818
After the whole cable release,

274
00:23:58,819 --> 00:24:00,978
there was fury
in the Russian Government

275
00:24:00,979 --> 00:24:03,659
at the way their country
had been portrayed,

276
00:24:03,659 --> 00:24:06,499
and with the people
who had helped the Americans.

277
00:24:38,779 --> 00:24:43,378
The cable leak affected relations
at the highest levels.

278
00:24:43,379 --> 00:24:47,818
What do you think it did
to the relationship between
the United States and Russia?

279
00:24:47,819 --> 00:24:51,338
Without any question,
individual relationships are harmed

280
00:24:51,339 --> 00:24:54,218
and many ambassadors will tell you
they were harmed,

281
00:24:54,219 --> 00:24:57,619
that relationships
they had spent a long time building,

282
00:24:57,619 --> 00:25:00,339
you know, there is a real chill.

283
00:25:03,019 --> 00:25:05,818
America's alliances
weren't strong enough

284
00:25:05,819 --> 00:25:08,658
to contain its old enemy, Russia.

285
00:25:08,659 --> 00:25:12,299
But the cables show the US
also has a difficult relationship

286
00:25:12,299 --> 00:25:16,219
with the world's rising power...
China.

287
00:25:21,059 --> 00:25:25,778
The United States has to tread
carefully when it deals with China.

288
00:25:25,779 --> 00:25:29,819
No other nation comes as near
to the United States economically

289
00:25:29,819 --> 00:25:34,139
and China continues to develop
its military machine.

290
00:25:36,019 --> 00:25:40,458
The cables reveal a major
military confrontation with China

291
00:25:40,459 --> 00:25:43,258
that happened largely in secret.

292
00:25:43,259 --> 00:25:47,819
It started in January 2007,
when, without warning,

293
00:25:47,819 --> 00:25:52,059
the Chinese Army shot down
one of their own satellites.

294
00:25:53,019 --> 00:25:56,218
They know how dependent we are
on satellites

295
00:25:56,219 --> 00:25:58,618
for intelligence communications
and so on,

296
00:25:58,619 --> 00:26:02,538
thus, their development
of an anti-satellite capability.

297
00:26:02,539 --> 00:26:05,819
They have a sophisticated
and targeted approach

298
00:26:05,819 --> 00:26:08,539
to identify our vulnerabilities.

299
00:26:09,539 --> 00:26:13,698
Privately, the Americans registered
their anger at the Chinese move,

300
00:26:13,699 --> 00:26:17,818
but they were determined
to keep public relations warm.

301
00:26:17,819 --> 00:26:22,538
We don't want to see a situation
where there is any militarisation
of space.

302
00:26:22,539 --> 00:26:25,579
I believe there is reason
to be optimistic

303
00:26:25,579 --> 00:26:27,779
about the US-China relationship.

304
00:26:29,619 --> 00:26:33,059
Behind the scenes,
things were very different.

305
00:26:34,019 --> 00:26:39,419
The two powers were now locked
into a confrontation
about military power in space

306
00:26:39,419 --> 00:26:42,779
and the tone of the cables
was direct and angry.

307
00:26:54,219 --> 00:26:57,898
And what's interesting, in contrast
to the public pleasantries,

308
00:26:57,899 --> 00:27:02,298
is the open aggression
in the cables sent to the Chinese.

309
00:27:02,299 --> 00:27:06,579
In one cable, sent from the then-US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice,

310
00:27:06,579 --> 00:27:10,059
the familiar, tactful language
has gone.

311
00:27:16,019 --> 00:27:20,578
"With a wide range of options,
from diplomatic to military."

312
00:27:20,579 --> 00:27:23,419
Assistant Secretary of State
Christopher Hill

313
00:27:23,419 --> 00:27:28,219
was one of those taking the lead
in America's diplomacy
with the Chinese.

314
00:27:30,139 --> 00:27:32,818
Condoleezza Rice,
she sends a very robust cable.

315
00:27:32,819 --> 00:27:35,658
It even raises the prospect
of the use of force.

316
00:27:35,659 --> 00:27:39,098
That's an amazing sense
of aggression and tension.

317
00:27:39,099 --> 00:27:42,299
She was obviously, angry with
the Chinese, as we all were.

318
00:27:42,299 --> 00:27:45,339
She really did let them have it
and I think they deserved it.

319
00:27:47,019 --> 00:27:50,498
This is the cables
at their most revealing.

320
00:27:50,499 --> 00:27:55,418
The language now being traded
between the US and China is fierce.

321
00:27:55,419 --> 00:27:57,939
The Chinese response
to the American cables

322
00:27:57,939 --> 00:28:00,019
is just as aggressive.

323
00:28:10,619 --> 00:28:13,658
Certainly, we put down a marker
with the Chinese

324
00:28:13,659 --> 00:28:16,218
and made it very clear
that we care about this.

325
00:28:16,219 --> 00:28:19,218
The Chinese are not going to say,
"Goodness, we're sorry,

326
00:28:19,219 --> 00:28:21,138
"we'll never do it again."

327
00:28:21,139 --> 00:28:23,538
Instead they came back
with a very, uh,

328
00:28:23,539 --> 00:28:27,218
you know, nasty statement
of their own.

329
00:28:27,219 --> 00:28:31,218
The next message from America
was not diplomatic.

330
00:28:31,219 --> 00:28:33,898
This is the USS Lake Erie,

331
00:28:33,899 --> 00:28:38,459
operating in the Pacific
in the spring of 2008.

332
00:28:38,459 --> 00:28:42,379
The Americans are about to shoot
down one of their own satellites.

333
00:28:44,899 --> 00:28:48,898
In public, America said that
the satellite was out of control.

334
00:28:48,899 --> 00:28:51,419
But from the cables,
we know the background

335
00:28:51,419 --> 00:28:54,859
and the message to China
wasn't subtle.

336
00:28:56,219 --> 00:28:58,938
You shot down one of your
satellites? That's right.

337
00:28:58,939 --> 00:29:01,618
Was that to teach them a lesson? No.

338
00:29:01,619 --> 00:29:05,418
It was to prevent the satellite
from falling to earth.

339
00:29:05,419 --> 00:29:09,018
But it clearly had the, uh,

340
00:29:09,019 --> 00:29:11,618
the ancillary benefit

341
00:29:11,619 --> 00:29:15,058
of demonstrating
an important capability.

342
00:29:15,059 --> 00:29:17,779
The more you dig into the cables,

343
00:29:17,779 --> 00:29:22,459
the more the complexity of America's
relationship with China is revealed.

344
00:29:23,979 --> 00:29:27,379
Despite China being
their closest rival,

345
00:29:27,379 --> 00:29:32,259
the cables show the lengths
America will go to
to make the Chinese happy.

346
00:29:34,699 --> 00:29:37,939
This became dramatically clear
in 2008,

347
00:29:37,939 --> 00:29:40,819
when China hosted the Olympic Games.

348
00:29:41,779 --> 00:29:45,218
REPORTER: Someone has tried to grab
the torch from Konnie Huq,

349
00:29:45,219 --> 00:29:47,218
the Blue Peter presenter!

350
00:29:47,219 --> 00:29:49,338
Someone, a man...

351
00:29:49,339 --> 00:29:52,418
Protesters, angry at China's
human rights record,

352
00:29:52,419 --> 00:29:56,818
tried to disrupt the journey of
the Olympic Torch around the globe.

353
00:29:56,819 --> 00:30:02,178
This seemed to be the perfect moment
for America to take a stand.

354
00:30:02,179 --> 00:30:05,098
We believe in human rights
and human dignity.

355
00:30:05,099 --> 00:30:07,619
We believe in the human condition,

356
00:30:07,619 --> 00:30:12,019
we believe in freedom
and we're willing to take the lead.

357
00:30:13,619 --> 00:30:18,218
I remember when the Torch Runners
came to San Francisco,

358
00:30:18,219 --> 00:30:22,618
we wanted to try and avoid
some of the same incidents

359
00:30:22,619 --> 00:30:25,219
that, if I remember correctly,
occurred in Europe

360
00:30:25,219 --> 00:30:28,939
where they had been prevented
from getting to their destination.

361
00:30:30,539 --> 00:30:34,138
On the day the torch was to be
paraded through San Francisco,

362
00:30:34,139 --> 00:30:38,658
the route was shortened
and changed at the last moment.

363
00:30:38,659 --> 00:30:41,419
It was one of the few places
in the world

364
00:30:41,419 --> 00:30:45,339
where the journey of the torch
was not interrupted by protesters.

365
00:30:46,819 --> 00:30:49,819
America betrayed
one of its own ideals...

366
00:30:49,819 --> 00:30:53,299
the right to protest...
to appease the Chinese.

367
00:30:54,219 --> 00:30:57,179
And a cable
from the American Embassy in China

368
00:30:57,179 --> 00:30:59,499
suggests the gamble paid off.

369
00:31:10,979 --> 00:31:14,178
Some world leaders decided
not to attend the games themselves

370
00:31:14,179 --> 00:31:16,418
because of China's
human rights record,

371
00:31:16,419 --> 00:31:19,218
but America chose to go.

372
00:31:19,219 --> 00:31:22,818
It was another US attempt
to show support for China.

373
00:31:22,819 --> 00:31:25,818
I'm going to the Olympics.
I view it as a sporting event.

374
00:31:25,819 --> 00:31:29,218
I'm not going to... use the Olympics

375
00:31:29,219 --> 00:31:33,618
as an opportunity to express
my opinions to the Chinese people
in a public way,

376
00:31:33,619 --> 00:31:36,738
because I do it all the time
with the president.

377
00:31:36,739 --> 00:31:40,418
It was an important statement
by George W Bush...

378
00:31:40,419 --> 00:31:42,018
"We value the relationship,

379
00:31:42,019 --> 00:31:46,818
"we understand the importance
of this issue to you."

380
00:31:46,819 --> 00:31:50,299
"And so, when we have issues
that we say are important to us,

381
00:31:50,299 --> 00:31:53,779
"we hope you will also
pay attention." That's the message.

382
00:31:58,219 --> 00:32:01,458
But did the strategy work?

383
00:32:01,459 --> 00:32:03,819
One of the issues America
often raised

384
00:32:03,819 --> 00:32:07,459
was the human rights
of Chinese citizens.

385
00:32:38,019 --> 00:32:40,618
We raised specific cases,

386
00:32:40,619 --> 00:32:43,818
uh, in particular,

387
00:32:43,819 --> 00:32:48,019
an individual, noted individual
who's being detained,

388
00:32:48,019 --> 00:32:51,899
who we would urge that they release.

389
00:32:52,899 --> 00:32:56,338
We tried to do it more in private
than in public,

390
00:32:56,339 --> 00:33:02,418
just in terms of, uh,
not antagonising, uh, the Chinese.

391
00:33:02,419 --> 00:33:05,258
This is always
a very delicate balance.

392
00:33:05,259 --> 00:33:07,058
Now, thanks to the cables,

393
00:33:07,059 --> 00:33:10,819
we can see who America was trying
to help behind closed doors

394
00:33:10,819 --> 00:33:13,059
and how they did it.

395
00:33:27,499 --> 00:33:32,018
Individual cases were raised
at the highest level.

396
00:33:32,019 --> 00:33:33,818
We've tracked this couple down.

397
00:33:33,819 --> 00:33:38,219
Hu Jia and his wife Zeng Jinyan
are human rights campaigners

398
00:33:38,219 --> 00:33:42,259
and have been in conflict
with the authorities for six years.

399
00:33:43,419 --> 00:33:46,178
This video,
shot by the couple themselves,

400
00:33:46,179 --> 00:33:50,419
shows the sort of intimidation
they have faced over those years.

401
00:33:50,419 --> 00:33:55,179
Zeng confronts the secret police,
who follow her every move.

402
00:33:57,619 --> 00:34:00,539
We could only reach her
by video phone.

403
00:34:15,339 --> 00:34:20,059
In desperation, Zeng appealed
to the American Embassy for help.

404
00:34:20,219 --> 00:34:23,499
What did you think
they would go and do?

405
00:34:34,859 --> 00:34:38,419
What did they say to you?
What did they say they would do?

406
00:34:42,379 --> 00:34:48,059
And now, thanks to the cables,
we can see the Americans
did raise the case.

407
00:34:56,939 --> 00:35:01,659
But there are accusations
that this effort was half-hearted.

408
00:35:18,419 --> 00:35:21,098
Sophie Richardson
is a human rights expert

409
00:35:21,099 --> 00:35:23,138
who monitors China.

410
00:35:23,139 --> 00:35:26,338
I think one of the things
that the cables reveal

411
00:35:26,339 --> 00:35:32,339
is a gap between what people knew,
which was quite a bit,

412
00:35:32,339 --> 00:35:36,779
and what they were doing about it,
which was not nearly enough.

413
00:35:38,939 --> 00:35:44,338
We can see America
struggling to influence China
in the way it would like.

414
00:35:44,339 --> 00:35:48,378
One of the reasons for this
is China's new economic strength,

415
00:35:48,379 --> 00:35:51,618
a truth captured
in one revelatory cable.

416
00:35:51,619 --> 00:35:54,179
Hillary Clinton
is talking about China

417
00:35:54,179 --> 00:35:57,059
with her team
from the State Department.

418
00:36:12,779 --> 00:36:15,898
After the financial crisis of 2008,

419
00:36:15,899 --> 00:36:20,138
America went cap-in-hand to China.

420
00:36:20,139 --> 00:36:23,418
By effectively lending the US
billions of dollars,

421
00:36:23,419 --> 00:36:25,978
China saved the superpower's
finances.

422
00:36:25,979 --> 00:36:30,739
The Chinese became the America's
largest foreign creditor.

423
00:36:30,739 --> 00:36:35,339
It marked a seismic shift
in the balance of power
between the two nations.

424
00:36:37,219 --> 00:36:41,778
The level of the US debt to China

425
00:36:41,779 --> 00:36:45,018
is a national security concern.

426
00:36:45,019 --> 00:36:47,618
It gives China leverage

427
00:36:47,619 --> 00:36:51,138
that has significant
policy implications.

428
00:36:51,139 --> 00:36:55,819
We are...
We understand that, intellectually,

429
00:36:55,819 --> 00:37:00,699
we, as a government,
continue to wrestle with
"what do we do about that?"

430
00:37:01,659 --> 00:37:04,338
In the months after
the financial crisis,

431
00:37:04,339 --> 00:37:10,338
America bent over backwards
to emphasise the warmth
in its relationship with China.

432
00:37:10,339 --> 00:37:15,698
I appreciate greatly the Chinese
Government's continuing confidence

433
00:37:15,699 --> 00:37:20,018
in the United States treasuries.

434
00:37:20,019 --> 00:37:24,018
But in private, American diplomats
were watching China change,

435
00:37:24,019 --> 00:37:27,338
developing a new arrogance
in its diplomacy.

436
00:37:27,339 --> 00:37:30,059
And in secret cables
they thought we would never read,

437
00:37:30,059 --> 00:37:33,859
they make increasingly
undiplomatic comments.

438
00:37:41,419 --> 00:37:46,179
And America realises its influence
over China is diminishing.

439
00:37:46,179 --> 00:37:51,459
Diplomats secretly acknowledge
that China is no longer listening.

440
00:37:58,619 --> 00:38:00,338
The cables report

441
00:38:00,339 --> 00:38:04,059
that China is even turning
the arguments about human rights

442
00:38:04,059 --> 00:38:05,819
against America.

443
00:38:16,419 --> 00:38:21,618
The Chinese do not shy away from,
um, you know, using anger

444
00:38:21,619 --> 00:38:26,298
and from speaking very, very plainly
on these things.

445
00:38:26,299 --> 00:38:28,858
Not all diplomatic engagements
are decisive.

446
00:38:28,859 --> 00:38:31,459
Sometimes you win,
sometimes you lose

447
00:38:31,459 --> 00:38:34,379
and then sometimes it just,
it doesn't change.

448
00:38:37,659 --> 00:38:41,018
In the end,
the cables track a failing strategy.

449
00:38:41,019 --> 00:38:44,898
A strong China
chose to ignore a weakened America

450
00:38:44,899 --> 00:38:47,418
and repression has worsened.

451
00:38:47,419 --> 00:38:51,619
The reality is, that we are
eight or nine months into...

452
00:38:51,619 --> 00:38:55,739
the worst crackdown we've seen
in China in about 15 years.

453
00:38:56,699 --> 00:39:00,419
And though the US raised her case
at the highest levels,

454
00:39:00,419 --> 00:39:03,339
little has changed for Zeng Jinyan.

455
00:39:04,299 --> 00:39:09,179
So, what we see in that film,
is that still going on?

456
00:39:12,499 --> 00:39:17,099
So, there are people
outside your house right now?

457
00:39:18,379 --> 00:39:21,258
And, if anything,
the WikiLeaks cable release

458
00:39:21,259 --> 00:39:25,018
has only served to harden
the conviction of some in China

459
00:39:25,019 --> 00:39:28,218
that the Americans can't be trusted.

460
00:39:28,219 --> 00:39:32,418
I think the cables, I think were...

461
00:39:32,419 --> 00:39:36,698
became grist
for a very conservative

462
00:39:36,699 --> 00:39:39,618
kind of hard-line element in China

463
00:39:39,619 --> 00:39:45,338
whose entire modus operandi,
modus vivendi is,

464
00:39:45,339 --> 00:39:47,819
"You must avoid
talking to foreigners.

465
00:39:47,819 --> 00:39:51,539
"You must be very careful
dealing with foreigners."

466
00:39:54,059 --> 00:39:56,778
The story of China,
told through the cables,

467
00:39:56,779 --> 00:40:00,218
is a clear illustration
of America's declining power.

468
00:40:00,219 --> 00:40:05,218
What we've found is
the United States struggling to deal
with its new rival.

469
00:40:05,219 --> 00:40:07,698
But there are other nations
that America sees

470
00:40:07,699 --> 00:40:10,858
as a far more direct threat.

471
00:40:10,859 --> 00:40:13,018
And going through the cables,

472
00:40:13,019 --> 00:40:16,259
we tracked one crisis
as it grew ever deeper.

473
00:40:16,259 --> 00:40:20,739
America's ultimate nightmare is
Iran, armed with a nuclear weapon.

474
00:40:28,499 --> 00:40:30,859
The start of 2012

475
00:40:30,859 --> 00:40:33,659
has seen tensions rise
between Iran and the West.

476
00:40:37,059 --> 00:40:38,739
The world's nuclear watchdog

477
00:40:38,739 --> 00:40:43,659
says it thinks Iran could be moving
even closer to a nuclear weapon.

478
00:40:45,139 --> 00:40:48,819
The cables show how America tries
and fails

479
00:40:48,819 --> 00:40:51,419
to stop its worst fear.

480
00:41:10,419 --> 00:41:14,979
"It may be well-suited, however,
for a military purpose."

481
00:41:15,939 --> 00:41:19,659
It is possible that Iran
could have this capability

482
00:41:19,659 --> 00:41:23,019
and we need to take it seriously.
Now.

483
00:41:27,299 --> 00:41:31,218
But despite America's fears
and the President's strong words,

484
00:41:31,219 --> 00:41:34,978
the US has a weakness
when it comes to Iran.

485
00:41:34,979 --> 00:41:38,219
Since the siege of their embassy
in 1979,

486
00:41:38,219 --> 00:41:43,059
the US has never re-established
diplomatic relations.

487
00:41:44,019 --> 00:41:46,819
It's one of the few places
on the planet

488
00:41:46,819 --> 00:41:50,059
where there are no Americans
sending cables.

489
00:41:51,019 --> 00:41:54,379
The vital flow of gossip
was cut off.

490
00:41:56,219 --> 00:42:00,579
From my view, we never know enough
about what's going on inside,

491
00:42:00,579 --> 00:42:05,659
particularly inside
the circles of power in Iran.

492
00:42:09,619 --> 00:42:11,538
But by 2006,

493
00:42:11,539 --> 00:42:15,618
fresh Iranian nuclear plans
meant that had to change.

494
00:42:15,619 --> 00:42:18,898
The US Government
created a web of informers,

495
00:42:18,899 --> 00:42:21,218
called the Iran Watchers.

496
00:42:21,219 --> 00:42:23,818
We tracked down
a state department official

497
00:42:23,819 --> 00:42:26,338
who monitored their cables.

498
00:42:26,339 --> 00:42:31,218
They started out in a handful
of countries and European capitals
in Istanbul and Dubai.

499
00:42:31,219 --> 00:42:33,938
They would talk to
Iranian businessmen,

500
00:42:33,939 --> 00:42:37,018
former Iranian diplomats,
former government officials,

501
00:42:37,019 --> 00:42:42,779
academics, activists,
students, intellectuals.

502
00:42:42,779 --> 00:42:45,819
They were what they call
Iran Watchers.

503
00:42:46,819 --> 00:42:49,458
The Iran Watchers
are an extraordinary group.

504
00:42:49,459 --> 00:42:53,299
Not quite spies, but crucial
in the gathering of intelligence.

505
00:42:53,299 --> 00:42:55,379
CHANTING

506
00:42:57,779 --> 00:43:02,859
The activities and identities
of the Iran Watchers
were supposed to be confidential.

507
00:43:02,859 --> 00:43:06,659
Now, thanks to WikiLeaks,
those secrets are out.

508
00:43:10,619 --> 00:43:14,139
"An Iranian law professor,
well known in Iran-Watcher circles,

509
00:43:14,139 --> 00:43:18,659
"offered his views on his 'childhood
friend', President Ahmadinejad."

510
00:43:45,939 --> 00:43:48,298
As ever with the cables,

511
00:43:48,299 --> 00:43:50,418
it's the detail
that's extraordinary.

512
00:43:50,419 --> 00:43:52,539
It's clear from the flow
of information

513
00:43:52,539 --> 00:43:55,939
that one of Washington's
key sources was based in London.

514
00:44:05,659 --> 00:44:10,819
He provided the Iran Watchers, based
in the UK, with crucial information.

515
00:44:10,819 --> 00:44:13,059
We've tracked him down.

516
00:44:21,219 --> 00:44:24,378
They contact me,
"Alireza, I am so and so,

517
00:44:24,379 --> 00:44:27,738
"I'm an American diplomat
working for this office."

518
00:44:27,739 --> 00:44:32,578
I don't like to go to embassies
or sit in a coffee shop outside,

519
00:44:32,579 --> 00:44:39,219
then somebody say, "I saw Alireza
talking to this American spy."

520
00:44:39,219 --> 00:44:42,339
So they come to my office.
We sit, we talk.

521
00:44:46,019 --> 00:44:51,259
Now we can read
the secret intelligence
he was passing on in the cables.

522
00:44:52,419 --> 00:44:57,618
I had a very reliable source
in Iraq.

523
00:44:57,619 --> 00:45:04,619
He gave me a lot of information
about the Iranian agents in Iraq.

524
00:45:04,619 --> 00:45:09,499
I met an American diplomat.
We talked about it.

525
00:45:11,219 --> 00:45:15,059
That information was sent
to Washington in a cable.

526
00:45:28,019 --> 00:45:32,459
They are very happy that
at least somebody else, beside them,

527
00:45:32,459 --> 00:45:34,859
is confirming that.

528
00:45:35,699 --> 00:45:39,219
The cables dealt with
a range of issues and, as ever,

529
00:45:39,219 --> 00:45:42,019
any gossip or information
was coveted.

530
00:45:44,819 --> 00:45:49,498
In mid-2009, accusations
of a rigged election in Iran

531
00:45:49,499 --> 00:45:52,819
led to violent protests
on the streets.

532
00:45:52,819 --> 00:45:57,859
The Iran Watchers picked up rumours
of what was going on
within the regime.

533
00:45:58,819 --> 00:46:01,658
Amongst them,
reports of an astonishing account

534
00:46:01,659 --> 00:46:05,539
of a confrontation between
Iranian President Ahmadinejad

535
00:46:05,539 --> 00:46:08,819
and the head of Iran's
Revolutionary Guard.

536
00:46:35,059 --> 00:46:38,419
It's one of the most shocking
revelations in the cables,

537
00:46:38,419 --> 00:46:41,539
the sort of rumour
the Americans were desperate for.

538
00:46:43,379 --> 00:46:45,418
That was absolutely true.

539
00:46:45,419 --> 00:46:48,778
The knowledge about that event

540
00:46:48,779 --> 00:46:52,418
was only between...

541
00:46:52,419 --> 00:46:56,618
a bunch of people,
only about seven, eight people.

542
00:46:56,619 --> 00:46:58,939
And when it came out

543
00:46:58,939 --> 00:47:01,019
everybody was shocked.

544
00:47:02,979 --> 00:47:06,859
When you get a cable like that,
that's a big deal.

545
00:47:07,819 --> 00:47:09,578
If it ends up being true,

546
00:47:09,579 --> 00:47:13,458
it demonstrates significant fissures
within the Iranian Government

547
00:47:13,459 --> 00:47:15,579
that could potentially be irreparable

548
00:47:15,579 --> 00:47:19,659
and the consequences
and the repercussions of that
potentially endless.

549
00:47:21,139 --> 00:47:25,298
Whether the rumour is true or not
is impossible to test,

550
00:47:25,299 --> 00:47:30,178
but it's clear the Iran Watchers
have plugged an intelligence hole
for the US.

551
00:47:30,179 --> 00:47:33,098
Their significance is beyond doubt.

552
00:47:33,099 --> 00:47:37,538
Since this process of the Iran
Watchers has been institutionalised,

553
00:47:37,539 --> 00:47:40,419
it's improved the understanding
of Iran

554
00:47:40,419 --> 00:47:43,339
within the US Government
exponentially.

555
00:47:47,339 --> 00:47:51,418
Their importance was also not lost
on the regime in Tehran.

556
00:47:51,419 --> 00:47:54,779
Worrying cables started to filter
back to Washington.

557
00:47:54,779 --> 00:47:58,339
It seemed the watchers
and their sources were now targets.

558
00:48:13,499 --> 00:48:16,819
"And friends in Iran suffer
harassment, intimidation,

559
00:48:16,819 --> 00:48:19,059
"detention and worse."

560
00:48:23,019 --> 00:48:28,059
And Ali Nourizadeh claims
he was one of the sources targeted.

561
00:48:28,579 --> 00:48:31,418
They tried to kill me.

562
00:48:31,419 --> 00:48:33,938
They sent, uh, the agent,

563
00:48:33,939 --> 00:48:38,018
a young man, who came and showed
too much interest in me,

564
00:48:38,019 --> 00:48:41,018
and he followed me for a while.

565
00:48:41,019 --> 00:48:44,298
I went to United States
because he was an American citizen,

566
00:48:44,299 --> 00:48:46,899
so he just came back from Iran

567
00:48:46,899 --> 00:48:49,619
and met me in United States.

568
00:48:50,539 --> 00:48:54,138
Nourizadeh's claim
is supported by a secret cable

569
00:48:54,139 --> 00:48:58,659
which identifies the young man
as an Iranian named Sadeqinia.

570
00:48:58,659 --> 00:49:02,259
The FBI was already
secretly tracking him.

571
00:49:12,619 --> 00:49:16,818
When he was arrested,
he was trying to hire a killer

572
00:49:16,819 --> 00:49:20,898
and the American arrested him
and he confessed.

573
00:49:20,899 --> 00:49:24,098
So one day,
people from the authority here,

574
00:49:24,099 --> 00:49:27,218
they came to my office,
they talked to me and they said,

575
00:49:27,219 --> 00:49:30,979
"We are very concerned.
Once again, you were a target."

576
00:49:30,979 --> 00:49:34,499
And this time, by this man.

577
00:49:35,339 --> 00:49:38,338
He wanted to poison me.

578
00:49:38,339 --> 00:49:40,259
I was shocked.

579
00:49:40,259 --> 00:49:44,939
I had to be vigilant
and to be a bit more careful.

580
00:49:46,499 --> 00:49:50,299
Sadeqinia confessed
to being an Iranian agent.

581
00:49:51,299 --> 00:49:57,379
Iran denies all allegations of an
overseas assassination programme.

582
00:49:58,379 --> 00:50:02,418
But such stories,
together with Iran's
continuing nuclear development,

583
00:50:02,419 --> 00:50:05,818
revealed a new,
more aggressive Iran.

584
00:50:05,819 --> 00:50:08,819
It's clear there was
a growing concern in the Middle East

585
00:50:08,819 --> 00:50:12,819
at the prospect of Iran
with a nuclear bomb.

586
00:50:14,619 --> 00:50:17,138
Some countries urged
the United States

587
00:50:17,139 --> 00:50:19,418
to take military action.

588
00:50:19,419 --> 00:50:23,418
How vociferously were you
being urged to attack Iran?

589
00:50:23,419 --> 00:50:26,338
Um, people were pretty, um,

590
00:50:26,339 --> 00:50:30,299
some people were pretty aggressive
in pushing it.

591
00:50:30,299 --> 00:50:34,219
Who was it? What were they saying?
I'm not going to go there!

592
00:50:36,019 --> 00:50:39,618
But now we know,
thanks to the cables.

593
00:50:39,619 --> 00:50:42,178
Many of the calls,
perhaps not surprisingly,

594
00:50:42,179 --> 00:50:44,339
came from Israeli politicians,

595
00:50:44,339 --> 00:50:47,659
like cabinet minister
Yuval Steinitz.

596
00:50:55,619 --> 00:50:58,538
What we did, and we are still doing,

597
00:50:58,539 --> 00:51:04,218
is trying to encourage
the Western World

598
00:51:04,219 --> 00:51:09,018
to handle this threat
and to prevent it,

599
00:51:09,019 --> 00:51:12,218
because it's extremely
dangerous threat,

600
00:51:12,219 --> 00:51:16,019
not just to Jews or to Israel
or to the Middle East,

601
00:51:16,019 --> 00:51:21,619
but to the rest of
the Western democratic civilisation
all together.

602
00:51:24,619 --> 00:51:29,338
But the cables also contained
a much bigger revelation...

603
00:51:29,339 --> 00:51:32,418
It wasn't only Israel
that was calling for action.

604
00:51:32,419 --> 00:51:34,619
It was Iran's Arab neighbours, too,

605
00:51:34,619 --> 00:51:36,859
places like Saudi Arabia.

606
00:51:37,819 --> 00:51:40,218
In public, Saudi diplomats acted

607
00:51:40,219 --> 00:51:44,018
as though they wanted warm relations
with Iran.

608
00:51:44,019 --> 00:51:45,818
Now, through the cables,

609
00:51:45,819 --> 00:51:48,778
we can read what the Saudis
were saying in private,

610
00:51:48,779 --> 00:51:51,939
including their ambassador
to the US, Adel al-Jubeir.

611
00:51:51,939 --> 00:51:54,819
The difference is striking.

612
00:52:07,899 --> 00:52:14,018
In public, the Americans
didn't distance themselves
from military action.

613
00:52:14,019 --> 00:52:18,058
They made clear all options
against Iran were on the table.

614
00:52:18,059 --> 00:52:21,138
Our message to the leaders of Iran
is also clear.

615
00:52:21,139 --> 00:52:24,538
America will confront those
who threaten our troops,

616
00:52:24,539 --> 00:52:26,379
we will stand by our allies

617
00:52:26,379 --> 00:52:29,699
and we will defend our
vital interests in the Persian Gulf.

618
00:52:39,299 --> 00:52:42,819
The enemy has made his
intentions clear.

619
00:52:42,819 --> 00:52:46,539
The US strategy was to talk tough.

620
00:52:47,779 --> 00:52:51,019
But the cables show
what they're were actually thinking.

621
00:52:51,019 --> 00:52:55,899
For years,
the Americans were quite clear...
they didn't want another war.

622
00:52:58,619 --> 00:53:04,339
"Wants to find an option...
other than military confrontation."

623
00:53:06,419 --> 00:53:09,178
So, what could America do?

624
00:53:09,179 --> 00:53:13,178
It didn't want a fight,
and Iran didn't seem keen to talk.

625
00:53:13,179 --> 00:53:17,899
Faced with such limited options,
they chose a different path...

626
00:53:17,899 --> 00:53:21,379
to try and strangle
the Iranian regime with sanctions.

627
00:53:27,219 --> 00:53:29,978
But the cables show
this policy failed.

628
00:53:29,979 --> 00:53:33,858
There wasn't enough
international support.

629
00:53:33,859 --> 00:53:36,379
The documents show
that in America's opinion,

630
00:53:36,379 --> 00:53:41,259
countries like Germany
said one thing in public,
but another in private.

631
00:53:55,219 --> 00:53:58,538
In the end, only limited sanctions
were introduced

632
00:53:58,539 --> 00:54:01,378
and these made little difference.

633
00:54:01,379 --> 00:54:05,418
The US is still faced
with its worst nightmare.

634
00:54:05,419 --> 00:54:09,298
Let me give you a very dark scenario
and I hope we never get there.

635
00:54:09,299 --> 00:54:13,618
We're speeding along a highway, the
Iranian Nuclear Programme Highway,

636
00:54:13,619 --> 00:54:17,218
and a lot of off-ramps are starting
to show up in our rear-view mirror,

637
00:54:17,219 --> 00:54:20,618
you know,
the off-ramp about sanctioning,

638
00:54:20,619 --> 00:54:22,418
and we're speeding towards...

639
00:54:22,419 --> 00:54:25,138
And I can make out
there's a fork in the road

640
00:54:25,139 --> 00:54:27,618
and I can even make out the signs,

641
00:54:27,619 --> 00:54:31,618
and the fork in the road says
"Do something or do nothing."

642
00:54:31,619 --> 00:54:33,338
That's a horrible place to be.

643
00:54:33,339 --> 00:54:37,058
I've had three American presidents,
three successive presidents,

644
00:54:37,059 --> 00:54:39,419
saying Iran getting a weapon
is unacceptable.

645
00:54:39,419 --> 00:54:42,179
As a native speaker,
I think I know what that means.

646
00:54:43,419 --> 00:54:48,618
The recent announcement
from the UN's nuclear watchdog
that Iran is enriching uranium

647
00:54:48,619 --> 00:54:52,778
has moved the unacceptable
much nearer the reality.

648
00:54:52,779 --> 00:54:58,298
Years of effort have failed to stop
Iran's desire to get a nuclear bomb,

649
00:54:58,299 --> 00:55:02,818
an event the Americans believe
would have grave consequences.

650
00:55:02,819 --> 00:55:06,778
Iran will use the possession
of nuclear weapons

651
00:55:06,779 --> 00:55:08,898
to intimidate its neighbours.

652
00:55:08,899 --> 00:55:11,098
I think it also is very likely

653
00:55:11,099 --> 00:55:14,859
to spark a nuclear arms race
in the region.

654
00:55:14,859 --> 00:55:16,819
At least one or two other countries

655
00:55:16,820 --> 00:55:21,778
probably feeling compelled to have
nuclear weapons if Iran does...

656
00:55:21,779 --> 00:55:24,818
I think it's incredibly
destabilising,

657
00:55:24,819 --> 00:55:28,218
just as a war would be.

658
00:55:28,219 --> 00:55:31,819
If we've learned anything
from Iraq and from Afghanistan,

659
00:55:31,819 --> 00:55:35,219
it's how unpredictable war is
once it's started.

660
00:55:37,019 --> 00:55:39,778
WikiLeaks exposed
the uncomfortable reality

661
00:55:39,779 --> 00:55:43,978
of America's relations with Iran,
China and Russia.

662
00:55:43,979 --> 00:55:48,858
But a year on, the impact
of the cables hasn't finished yet.

663
00:55:48,859 --> 00:55:52,218
Bradley Manning, the man accused
of leaking the cables,

664
00:55:52,219 --> 00:55:55,658
is still held
in US military custody.

665
00:55:55,659 --> 00:55:58,019
He's due to go before
a court martial,

666
00:55:58,019 --> 00:56:00,499
but no longer faces
the death penalty.

667
00:56:02,019 --> 00:56:08,138
Julian Assange is appealing against
his extradition to Sweden
on sexual assault allegations.

668
00:56:08,139 --> 00:56:11,138
He currently faces no charges
in the US,

669
00:56:11,139 --> 00:56:14,698
though a grand jury
continues to consider his case.

670
00:56:14,699 --> 00:56:20,418
And the website he founded
has been subject to an unprecedented
global financial blockade

671
00:56:20,419 --> 00:56:24,498
by companies including MasterCard,
Visa and PayPal.

672
00:56:24,499 --> 00:56:27,018
Assange recently announced
that the blockade

673
00:56:27,019 --> 00:56:30,619
had cut off 95 percent
of WikiLeaks' revenues

674
00:56:30,619 --> 00:56:33,259
and that it was suspending
publishing.

675
00:56:34,219 --> 00:56:36,939
The website now carries
this message...

676
00:56:42,019 --> 00:56:45,858
The WikiLeaks cables allowed us
a glimpse behind the door,

677
00:56:45,859 --> 00:56:48,218
to see a superpower's secrets.

678
00:56:48,219 --> 00:56:51,218
That door has now slammed shut.

679
00:56:51,219 --> 00:56:53,258
Many Americans believe long-term,

680
00:56:53,259 --> 00:56:56,179
the leaks will not cause
significant damage

681
00:56:56,179 --> 00:56:59,259
and the US remains the world leader.

682
00:57:01,619 --> 00:57:04,858
The US is still
the indispensible power.

683
00:57:04,859 --> 00:57:10,378
Nothing in the
international environment gets done
in a constructive way

684
00:57:10,379 --> 00:57:14,378
unless the United States
plays a central role.

685
00:57:14,379 --> 00:57:18,498
And so what I saw
as Secretary of Defence is,

686
00:57:18,499 --> 00:57:21,418
WikiLeaks not withstanding
and everything else,

687
00:57:21,419 --> 00:57:25,338
the vast majority of countries
in the world

688
00:57:25,339 --> 00:57:29,018
want a better, stronger relationship
with the United States,

689
00:57:29,019 --> 00:57:33,418
and where there is still...

690
00:57:33,419 --> 00:57:37,019
enormous respect
for all kinds of our power,

691
00:57:37,019 --> 00:57:39,939
political, economic and military.

692
00:57:40,939 --> 00:57:46,458
But others believe the cables
show America is a declining power.

693
00:57:46,459 --> 00:57:49,058
People were a bit disturbed

694
00:57:49,059 --> 00:57:52,218
how ineffective
the United States were,

695
00:57:52,219 --> 00:57:56,698
that they allowed these leaks.

696
00:57:56,699 --> 00:58:01,138
That came on the background
of other failures

697
00:58:01,139 --> 00:58:03,578
of the US Government,

698
00:58:03,579 --> 00:58:06,738
starting with Iraq,
through Afghanistan,

699
00:58:06,739 --> 00:58:10,618
to their internal debt crisis.

700
00:58:10,619 --> 00:58:12,498
So that diminished

701
00:58:12,499 --> 00:58:17,019
the weight and the respect
towards the United States,

702
00:58:17,019 --> 00:58:18,659
which is unfortunate.

703
00:58:23,219 --> 00:58:27,058
I think the cables show the changing
shape of power in the world.

704
00:58:27,059 --> 00:58:30,018
American remains
the one global superpower,

705
00:58:30,019 --> 00:58:32,818
politically, economically,
militarily,

706
00:58:32,819 --> 00:58:36,219
but it's not a superpower
that can click its fingers

707
00:58:36,219 --> 00:58:40,219
and expect the rest of the world
to come to heel.

708
00:58:42,699 --> 00:58:47,218
Hidden in these secret documents
are American dreams that died

709
00:58:47,219 --> 00:58:49,458
and nightmares that came true.

710
00:58:49,459 --> 00:58:53,818
They show the ambition, the scale
and, at times, the honesty

711
00:58:53,819 --> 00:58:56,618
of a superpower's secret life.

712
00:58:56,619 --> 00:58:59,899
And they also may reveal
the places and problems

713
00:58:59,899 --> 00:59:04,299
that, in the end,
might weaken US power for good.

714
00:59:05,356 --> 00:59:35,125
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